The Scorecard: Week 2
Graded yesterday, and it was ugly. Zero for three, all three under the call.
Elly De La Cruz, 2024 Bowman Chrome Mega Box Mojo Refractor: I called $8 to $9. It landed at $4.83. Grade: F.
Paul Skenes, 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Bowman Refractor: Called $80 to $85. Came in at $70. Grade: D.
Colt Emerson, 2024 Bowman's Best Auto: Called $60 to $65. Settled at $50.93. Grade: D.
Win rate so far: 33%, 2 of 6. The full grades and the post-mortem are in yesterday's scorecard video. Full breakdown in the scorecard video on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, and Facebook.
Market News + My Take
The big one, effective today: PSA is pausing new submissions to all four of its Value tiers (Value Bulk, Value, Value Plus, and Value Max). The backlog is approaching 10 million cards, and those tiers stay closed until they cut it in half. Regular service and up are still open, but the cheap doors just shut.
For a channel built on raw cards, this is the whole story. The most affordable way to get a card slabbed has been unavailable for months, meaning a wave of cards that would have been graded are about to remain raw. More raw supply, and a lot of sellers who now have to move those copies in the same raw market we shop in. Worth watching what that does to floors.
(PSA announced a $200 million expansion. The announcement triggered a surge in submissions, and the fix was to stop accepting them. The hobby remains undefeated.)
What I'm Watching
2026 Bowman is anchoring the month, which means a fresh wave of 1st Bowman prospect cards is about to flood the sold comps. That is exactly the environment where volume lies the most, a lot of churn that looks like demand and is really just new supply changing hands. So I am moving slowly this week.
Three new calls drop on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. As usual, I will also tell you the one I am not touching, and why.
One Tip
When you pull eBay sold comps, sort newest to oldest and ignore the 7-day average. The average blends last week's prices with this week's, and in a falling market, that blend hides the slide. Anchor on the last three to five sales instead. That is where the card actually trades right now, not where it traded on Monday.
(This is the exact mistake that cost me in Week 2.)
Stat of the Week
800%. That was the volume spike on the Elly card the week I made the call. The price went the other direction, and the grade came back an F. If you ever wanted one number that proves volume is not demand, that is it.
This Week's Cards
This week's picks are live in the eBay storefront.